Community Summary
There is a lot of erroneous information being reported in the news regarding the Real Estate market. A recent story on channel 15’s website quoted a Real Estate agent that 90% of the homes that had trustee notices filed went back to the bank. The agent only could have pulled this number out of the air. I went to my sources, Net Value Central, and they came up with the correct numbers. These numbers are for Maricopa County. You can be assured they are correct.
I did call the reporter at channel 15 and left a message that I had the correct numbers, but the call was not returned. So much for fair and honest reporting. The market is bad enough without adding grave misinformation.
All trustee sales filed between 1/1/2009 and 6/1/2010
Total Sales: 141,006
Still Active: 23,235 (16%)
Sold prior to Auction: 5,186 (4%)
Cancelled: 40,257 (29%)
Sold at Auction: 72,325 (51%)
- To Beneficiary: 54,008 (75% of sold at auction, 38% of filed foreclosures)
- To 3rd Party: 17,784 (25% of sold at auction, 13% of filed foreclosures)
View the Article Here. |
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Mohr Homes Newsletter
Fall 2010
The Business Journal of Phoenix
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
by Lynn Ducey and Ilana Lowery
Economic forecast: Worst is over, uncertainty lingers
“We are in recovery ... the trend is up and the worst is over.”
That’s the good news, and it was the gist of comments made Tuesday morning at the annual SRP Economic Forecast by a national futurist speaking about the economic turbulence of the lagging recession.
But, and there’s always a but: “Massive” uncertainty continues to paralyze the decision-making process for businesses, making it harder for them to invest, hire and expand.
“It is the ultimate Catch-22,” said Don Reynolds, president and founder of 21st Century Forecasting.
Close to 900 business leaders and executives attended the Sept. 21 event at the Arizona Biltmore Resort and Spa, where Reynolds said it will be another three years before the national economy is back to where it was before the recession hit in late 2007.
“And yes, we still have a couple of million more foreclosures coming,” he said.
Stephen Happel, an economic professor at Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business, said that while the numbers may be tepid, Arizona’s economy has begun an upswing.
“Recessions do come to an end. They do,” Happel said.
At the same time, job growth will continue to lag and the nation’s economy will tap the brakes on Arizona’s growth.
“The fundamental features of what attracts people to this state are still here,” Happel said. “But if the nation’s economy doesn’t improve, Arizona’s economy won’t improve.”
There is also a strong danger of inflation, as the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates low.
While many sectors are rebounding, “wage, salary and employment growth are still going to be negative in 2011,” Happel said.
Because of that, consumers remain cautious in their spending and businesses remain wary. Happel said wages and employment in Phoenix still are expected to reach historic lows and housing prices will remain flat.
Reynolds expects the nation’s real growth to hover around 2 percent this year, but says unemployment will continue to be an key issue.
“We are looking at a structurally higher level of unemployment,” Reynolds said.
The economists disagree on whether a double-dip recession is on the horizon.
Reynolds said inflation is a danger hovering over the economy, but a double-dip recession is unlikely. A double-dip recession, also known as a W-shaped recession, is when an economy recovers from negative GDP growth then “dips” back into a recession after a short period of growth.
He pointed to China and Germany, where growth is expected to be about 9 percent, India may see 7 percent growth and Latin America could experience 5 percent growth.
“You can’t have a double-dip recession with increases like these globally,” Reynolds said. “The reality is that a double-dip recession just doesn’t compute.”
Happel, however, said he’s not convinced that the economy won’t take another hit.
“There’s a 50-50 chance we may see a double-dip recession in the second half of the year,” he said. “It’s hard to see how we are going to come flying back.”
Reynolds said that a more collective, across-the-aisle approach among legislators and the need for a set of regulations in Obama’s Health Care Reform package that can be disseminated to business owners and consumers, will help lessen the nation’s overall uncertainty.
“We’ve been here before. This, too, shall pass,” Reynolds said.
Arizona economic facts, July 2009 to July 2010
- No. 36 in job growth. Alaska and North Dakota are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.
- No. 5 in the nation for creation of retail and sales jobs.
- Positive job growth in sectors such as health and educational services.
- 2 percent decline in government jobs.
- Population growth up 1.2 percent.
- 16 percent growth in single-family housing predicted for 2011.
Source: Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business
Foreclosure Numbers from Net Value Central
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